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09/22/2004 Archived Entry: "MLB: Introducing Total Total Bases"
MLB: Introducing Total Total Bases
By Michael Toeset
I’ve long been dissatisfied with player ratings like Bill James’ Runs Created, which, while they are remarkably helpful in determining a player’s value outside the traditional batting average and RBI, fail in one aspect: It doesn’t take into account stolen bases. Many ratings like RC penalize for caught stealing, but there’s no flip side; steals are ignored as if they were a meaningless stat.
But if you consider that a double is worth twice as much as a single in total bases (a big part of ratings like these), why shouldn’t a steal be considered a type of double? What’s the difference between a player hitting a double and a player hitting a single and then stealing a base? In my book, none.
That’s why this year, when pondering league awards, I will be using a stat I’ve termed Total Total Base Average (TTBA). The way it works is so:
Total bases + walks + hit by pitch + steals – caught stealing – double plays / total plate appearances.
A fast singles hitter will still rank below the mighty home-run sluggers, but this will put their value higher and, in some cases, elevate the speedster to the top of the league in true total bases.
First off, let’s look at a few star performers from this season:
Barry Bonds .884 TTBA (yeah, he’s that good)
Albert Pujols .659 TTBA
Ichiro Suzuki .516 TTBA
Adrian Beltre .644 TTBA
Bobby Abreu .656 TTBA
Because Ichiro hasn’t had all that many extra-base hits and hasn’t stolen as many bases as he is capable of, he ranks far below sluggers like Pujols and Beltre. Under the RC system, however, Ichiro would slip even further behind these guys. A player like Abreu, however, jumps exponentially in terms of value because he’s a 30-30 player (well, almost). Under the old system, he’d certainly still be valuable, but here he ranks almost even with Pujols.
The point of baseball, from an offensive standpoint, is to advance as many bases as possible, and I believe TTBA best utilizes that philosophy.
From a historical standpoint, let’s look at a couple speedsters as compared with Pujols:
Albert Pujols (2004): .327 avg, 44 hr, 5 sb, .659 TTBA
Rickey Henderson (1983): .292 avg, 9 hr, 108 sb, .645 TTBA
Kenny Lofton (1994): .349 avg, 12 hr, 60 sb, .656 TTBA
Lou Brock (1974): .306, 3 hr, 118 sb, .544 TTBA
Maury Wills (1962): .299 avg, 6 hr, 104 sb, .522 TTBA
Some may say that TTBA gives too much importance to steals machines, but as evidenced by the above stats, pure speed does not a superstar make; speedsters like Brock in 1974 and Wills in 1962 weren’t even close as valuable as Pujols is this season because their on-base percentages weren’t all that high. So even though they topped 100 steals – which some might think would tip the scales too much in their favor – they failed to break the .600 TTBA mark.
Speedsters like Henderson and Lofton, who didn’t crack that many home runs (a definite disadvantage in the total bases department), were nearly as valuable as Pujols when steals are included. They may not have hit 50 doubles, but they got themselves there on their own, which is accounted for under this system.
One last look at past performances: History’s three 40-40 players had very successful seasons, but they all weren’t superstar years, as, again, some might suppose under this system:
Jose Canseco (1988): .307 avg, 42 hr, 40 sb, .630 TTBA
Barry Bonds (1996): .308 avg, 42 hr, 40 sb, .729 TTBA
Alex Rodriguez (1998): .310 avg, 42 hr, 46 sb, .615 TTBA
Hopefully in the future, ratings systems will incorporate steals. As for me, I will be using it in evaluating players.
e-mail questions or comments to mtoeset@baseballguru.com
