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03/10/2004 Archived Entry: "MLB news: Say hey to the record book, Bonds"
MLB news: Say hey to the record book, Bonds
By Michael Toeset
Allegations of Barry Bonds' steroid use aside, baseball fans shouldn't forget that Bonds is in the midst of a journey to the top of the record book. The most glamorous record he's chasing is the home run record, and he's a sure bet to move ahead of Willie Mays on the career home run list this season.
This is likely the last offseason the Say Hey Kid will sit at No. 3 on the all-time list; with 660 home runs, Mays will drop to No. 4 unless his godson - with 658 - suffers a career-ending injury or inexplicably retires. And with San Francisco opening the season with a three-game set in Houston - a known launching pad of a stadium - the passing of the torch is likely to occur before the first full week has played out.
While fans and the media may be focused on how natural - or not - Bonds' bulging biceps are, all of Major League Baseball has its eye on No. 25. You can be sure Bonds will be garnering plenty of walks early in the year as pitchers attempt to keep their names off of the wrong side of the record book. And Giants manager Felipe Alou is already on record as saying he thinks Bonds will accomplish the history-making feat rather quickly.
Bonds, however, isn't just chasing Mays' home run mark, he also is poised to pass Mays on the list for career runs scored. Mays is presently sixth all time with 2,062, and Bonds is not far behind at ninth place with 1,941 runs. It's not inconceivable that Bonds could score 122 runs this season - the past three years he's scored 129, 117 and 111, respectively.
Looking at the numbers, history seems to favor Bonds. But stats alone don't tell the whole story, and while it may be an exercise in futility to place the outfielders' stats side by side in order to rule one the better player - especially with Bonds playing in this homer-happy era - it's still worthwhile to take a look at their numbers:
MAYS: 2,992 G, 10,881 AB, 660 HR, 1,903 RBI, 2,062 R, .557 SLG
BONDS: 2,569 G, 8,725 AB, 658 HR, 1,742 RBI, 1,941 R, .602 SLG
Mays, whom many still consider the greatest all-around player in Major League history, slugged his 660 home runs in 10,881 at-bats, an average of 1 home run every 16.5 at-bats. Bonds has slugged his 658 in only 8,725 at-bats, an average of 1 home run every 13.3 at-bats. It's a seemingly impressive difference on the surface, but the numbers belie factors such as stadiums (compare Coors Field to the Polo Grounds) and the quality of pitching. Another thing to bear in mind is that when Mays was 21, he was on hiatus from baseball for military service, which robbed him of more than a year-and-a-half in playing time. Think he wouldn't have slugged many home runs at age 21 and 22? Well, the season Mays returned to baseball, he crushed 41 home runs. In 1952-53, Mays hit only four round-trippers, and it's probable that he could have hit 60 in that span - which would have placed him ahead of Babe Ruth on the all-time list and certainly boosted his numbers.
Using a 162-game home-run average, Bonds still comes in ahead of Mays: Bonds has averaged 41 home runs while Mays averaged 36. Over 18 years, Bonds would hit nearly 100 more homers.
A noticeable difference in the outfielders' numbers are the stats they posted in their late 30s. Between the ages of 36 to 38, Mays only hit 58 home runs. Bonds, meanwhile, blasted 164 home runs at those ages. Whatever you want to credit - advancements in health and nutrition or steroids - it's clear that the "golden years" have been much kinder to Bonds.
One final stat to contemplate is the best five consecutive years. And, no surprise, Bonds finishes first again. His best run began in 1999, as he hit 34, 49, 73, 46 and 45, a total of 247 home runs. Mays, meanwhile, began his best run in 1961, posting 40, 49, 38, 47 and 52 homers, a total of 226.
So is there any conclusion to make from all the numbers? Nothing definitive, which is one of the great draws of baseball - the enigmatic "what ifs?"
Needless to say, it would've been something to see Mays compete in this era. But perhaps we're witnessing the next best thing: Barry Bonds.
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Mays played for three years in the Negro Leagues as a teenager (1948-50) before making his MLB debut in 1951 as a 20 yr old. In his third Negro League season he batted .330 with 4 HRs in 106 AB (5 HRs total), according to the Baseball Encyclopedia 8th edition.
Posted by Craig Tomarkin @ 03/10/2004 10:19 AM EST
