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04/19/2003 Archived Entry: "Today's MLB News: The Decline of the Stolen Base"
Today's MLB News by Eric Gartman
Today's MLB News: The Decline of the Stolen Base-A game today between the Florida Marlins and the New York Mets featured the Marlins steal six bases, but lose 6-3. The utility of the stolen base has been increasingly questioned over the past few years, with most baseball experts viewing it as more harmful than useful. A few, like Joe Morgan, disagree, noting that stolen bases disprupt the defense and the pitcher, while breaking up potential double plays and moving a runner into scoring postion. It wasn't that long ago when the stolen base was the weapon of choice. Whitey Herzog's 1980's Cardinals were built entirely on speed, with his teams regularly swiping over 200 bases, while hitting around sixty home runs. The Running Redbirds won three National League Pennants with this formula. But alas, I believe the days when speed alone rules the league are dead forever. There are two main reasons for this. One is the decline of Astroturf, the other is the strength training of current players. The Cards played their home games on the Astroturf of Busch Stadium. Since six out of 12 NL teams at the time played on turf, the Cards played fully 75 percent of their games on the fake stuff. Why is this relevent? On astroturf, the best way to get on base is to find a speedy guy who chops the ball into the ground, and beats the high bounce to first. You can't do that these days, with only two teams in the NL (Philly and Montreal) still playing on turf, with the Phillies switching to grass next year. Once you got the guy on base, chances weren't good that he was going to be driven in by a homer. Players did not yet lift weights, and stadiums like Busch were considered huge. Your best bet was to steal to move the runner over, and hope for a single to drive him in. All that has changed now. Hitters are much stronger, able to hit homers out of just about any park, including to the opposite field. Nowadays, your better off getting guys who can get on base by hitting line drives or walking, and then waiting for a big guy to hit a homer. And there are plenty of big guys these days. The epitome of this approach is the Oakland A's who generally disdain speed, favor power, and have good results to show for it.
This is not to say that speed will no longer have a place in the game. It may still be valuable to have a basestealer at the top of the lineup. Furthermore, speed is an asset for teams who play in the bigger parks. The 2001 Yankees, a little short on power by their standards, bolstered their offense by gaining impressive stolen base totals from Alfonso Soriano (43), Chuck Knoblauch (38) Derek Jeter (27), and Paul O'Neil (22). But even that team still had some power to complement the base thiefs. This years Marlins are fastest team in baseball, but despite having the two best basestealers in the game in Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre, it may be hard for them to score enough runs, due to a lack of power. Stolen bases will still have their place in some teams arsenals, but the days of pennant-winning teams stealing over 200 bases while hitting under 100 home runs are over.
