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04/06/2007 Archived Entry: "Lofton joins exclusive club"
By Michael Toeset
In the Rangers’ first game of the season, in Kenny Lofton’s first plate appearance, he was ready to run. As he drew a walk, he immediately had his eyes set on historic steal No. 600. Running against the Angels’ Mike Napoli – not exactly an Ivan Rodriguez-type catcher – Lofton easily swiped No. 600 on his first try. Only 16 players in the history of the MLB have crossed that threshold, so Lofton is in somewhat rare air here.
Even at 40 years old, Lofton is a terror on the basepaths, so if his bat holds up, he should have a shot at moving up the all-time list much further, perhaps becoming only the 11th player ever to record 700 steals. Directly ahead of Lofton on the list are George Davis (616 SB), Otis Nixon (620) and Bert Campaneris (649). Of that trio, only Nixon was still a threat to steal at age 40; he swiped 26 bases at that age.
Lofton’s stolen base totals over the years: 2, 66, 70, 60, 54, 75, 27, 54, 25, 30, 16, 29, 30, 7, 22 and 32.
Lofton’s first full season in the bigs didn’t come until he was 25 (he was busy leading Arizona to the Final Four in basketball), so his numbers could be even better. A good contemporary comparison – a young contemporary – is Carl Crawford, who, although he doesn’t quite match Lofton’s early career stats, is only 25 this season. A comparison of their first full seasons:
Lofton, year 1: 576 AB, 5 HR, 66 SB, .285 BA, .362 OBP, .365 SLG
Crawford, year 1: 630 AB, 5 HR, 55 SB, .281 BA, .309 OBP, .362 SLG
Lofton, year 2: 569 AB, 1 HR, 70 SB, .325 BA, .408 OBP, .408 SLG
Crawford, year 2: 626 AB, 11 HR, 59 SB, .296 BA, .331 OBP, .450 SLG
Lofton, year 3: 459 AB, 12 HR, 60 SB, .349 BA, .412 OBP, .536 SLG
Crawford, year 3: 644 AB, 15 HR, 46 SB, .301 BA, .331 OBP, .469 SLG
Lofton, year 4: 481 AB, 7 HR, 54 SB, .310 BA, .362 OBP, .453 SLG
Crawford, year 4: 600 AB, 18 HR, 58 SB, .305 BA, .348 OBP, .482 SLG
Lofton’s career year probably was his 1994 (year 3) season, but the case could be made for year 5, in which he hit .317-.372-.446, with 14 HR and 75 SB.
Baseball Prospectus’ WARP (wins above replacement value) and Bill James’ RC (runs created) compares them thusly:
Lofton, 1: 7.3, 76
Crawford, 1: 4.0, 71
Lofton, 2: 6.9, 95
Crawford, 2: 6.1, 94
Lofton, 3: 7.4, 102
Crawford, 3: 5.6, 99
Lofton, 4: 4.2, 79
Crawford, 4: 4.6, 100
According to WARP, that means that over the pair’s first four full seasons, a team with Lofton instead of Crawford would have won 5.5 more games. (By way of comparison, an average Albert Pujols year is worth 11 WARP, while Bonds at his peak was 15, and Ruth was 19. And Rickey Henderson – a speedster who could hit more than his share of homers – at his peak reached 12.) According to RC, Crawford created more 12 runs for his team than Lofton did.
Which player would you rather have leading off for your team (based on the above comparison)? Shoot me an email, and I’ll publish the results.
As long as we’re talking about comparisons, check out Henderson’s first four years. They’re quite comparable to Lofton’s. Knowing the Rickey became the greatest leadoff hitter of all time puts a damper on the similarities, but nonetheless, it’s an interesting comparison:
Henderson, 1: 591 AB, 9 HR, 100 SB, .303 BA, .420 OBP, .399 SLG, 10.4 WARP
Henderson, 2: 423 AB, 6 HR, 56 SB, .319 BA, .408 OBP, .437 SLG, 7.9 WARP
Henderson, 3: 536 AB, 10 HR, 130 SB, .267 BA, .398 OBP, .382 SLG, 6.8 WARP
Henderson, 4: 513 AB, 9 HR, 108 SB, .292 BA, .414 OBP, .421 SLG, 9.3 WARP
One last note about Lofton: His season steals high – 75 – only ranks as the 88th best SB year ever. However, if you disqualify 1800s players, Lofton would stand 37th on the list.
