[Previous entry: "Japanese Baseball News: Sayonara Means Victory for Kintetsu, Seibu; Muramatsu's Surprising Slam"] [Main Index] [Next entry: "Japan Baseball Daily Opens!"]
04/01/2004 Archived Entry: "MLB news: Single-season records preview"
MLB news: Single-season records preview
By Michael Toeset
Every year a hitter starts off scorching the ball and the projections say he’ll demolish the single-season record in X category. And, inevitably, he falls short, as one would expect. A small sample size of 50 at-bats or so is an indicator of success, but it almost never proves to accurately predict his final numbers. The same holds true with a pitcher who starts out looking like the 1988 version of Orel Hershiser; he’ll inevitably come back to Earth and see his ERA or what have you skyrocket.
But records* were made to be broken, and at the beginning of the season every player has a shot at establishing a new record. Some of the records will assuredly never be broken, however, especially several pitching marks that were established in the 19th century. It may surprise some fans to learn that a record has held up for 120-plus years, but it was a different game back then.
Many of the records are breakable, given the right circumstances. Barry Bonds has proven that, as in the past few years he’s bumped Babe Ruth to No. 2 in several categories.
Mentioned below are some of the higher-profile single-season records, the record-holder, and, if it appears breakable, who has a shot this season to better that accomplishment.
AVERAGE: .440, Hugh Duffy, 1894
Four-freaking-forty! This is certainly a record that will never be broken. Duffy, a career .324 hitter, had a video game-like season in 1894, a year when the league batting average was a hefty .309. The pitching was obviously pathetic that season (the league average was 7.6 runs per game), but nonetheless, four-freaking-forty!
OBP: .582, Barry Bonds, 2002
The 2004 Giants offer little besides Bonds in the way of respected hitters, so if he continues to hit like he has the past couple of years, he’ll be given a free pass almost every time he comes to bat; he could have a .600 OBP with about twice as many walks as hits. No one else, including Albert Pujols, will even come close to Bonds’ record.
SLUGGING: .863, Barry Bonds, 2001
The top five slugging seasons all-time were posted by Bonds and Ruth, and it likely will stay that way for quite awhile.
OPS: 1.381, Barry Bonds, 2002
See comment above.
GAMES: 165, Maury Wills, 1962
This is more a record of luck than any other stat, as a player would have to remain healthy, be traded a couple times, and see his end-of-the-year team forced to play an extra game. It’s not unbreakable, but it’s unlikely to happen.
AT-BATS: 705, Willie Wilson, 1980
A player like Bonds or Pujols will never approach 700 at-bats; it will take a player who would give Billy Beane a heart attack by never, ever walking. There were several players in 2003 who fit that profile and made a run at the record: Alfonso Soriano 682, Ichiro Suzuki 679, Vernon Wells 678, Juan Pierre 668, Michael Young 666, and Rafael Furcal 664. My money is on leadoff batter Carl Crawford. He walked only 26 times in 630 at-bats last year, and if he doesn’t get injured this year, he’ll break Wilson’s 24-year-old record.
RUNS: 192, Billy Hamilton, 1894
The closest anyone has come to the record in its 110 years was Ruth, who still came up 15 runs short, and if no one has seriously challenged the mark in that many years, it’s not likely to be broken anytime soon. Yeah, 1894 was a good year to be a hitter.
HITS: 257, George Sisler, 1920
In Ichiro’s first season in the MLB, he launched an attack on Sisler’s record but fell 15 hits short. Although Ichiro wasn’t able to break the long-standing mark, he did prove that Japanese players can hit, contrary to the opinions of some MLB players and executives. Just like the at-bats mark, a player can’t walk too much to have a legitimate shot at the hits record, so an other-worldly hitter like Pujols doesn’t really have much of a chance to break it. The record probably won’t be broken anytime soon, but keep an eye on Ichiro. He’ll be 30 this year, but he’s the only player to collect 200 or more hits in each of the past three seasons.
TOTAL BASES: 457, Babe Ruth, 1921
If Bonds couldn’t break this record, it’s unlikely anyone will. But a 23-year-old Pujols who hits 43 home runs and 51 doubles is capable of anything.
DOUBLES: 67, Earl Webb, 1931
See above comment about Pujols. Also keep an eye on Todd Helton, who’s averaged 50 doubles a season for the past four years, and Vernon Wells, who banged 49 doubles in his breakout season. Interesting side note: Negro League star Jud “Boojum” Wilson was so nicknamed because of his uncanny ability to crush balls off the outfield walls and make a noise that sounded like “boojum.” I move to declare the doubles leader every year the winner of the Boojum Award. …
TRIPLES: 36, Chief Wilson, 1912
It won’t be broken in this era, if ever.
HOME RUNS: 73, Barry Bonds, 2001
We were all saying after Mark McGwire’s 1998 campaign that we wouldn’t see anyone break the home run record for another 37 years, the same amount of time it took someone to break Roger Maris’ record. Well, Bonds came along and made a mockery of us – and major league pitching. But this time the home run record should stand for several generations.
RBI: 191, Hack Wilson, 1930
Since the 1930s, only Manny Ramirez has come close, and he still finished about seven grand slams short of the mark. If Pujols had, say, Rickey Henderson and Joe Morgan batting in front of him, I’d give him good odds to break the record, but he doesn’t, and neither does anyone else, so it won’t happen in 2004.
WALKS: 198, Barry Bonds, 2002
See comment under on-base percentage.
STRIKEOUTS: 189, Bobby Bonds, 1970
Daddy Bonds has his place in the record book, too, although it’s for strikeouts. But he’s likely to be bumped any season now. Jim Thome is a human windmill, having came oh-so-close to the infamous record, and one of these years he might just pass Bonds. And keep an eye on free-swingers Richie Sexson and Sammy Sosa. If Father Time catches up with Sosa this season, Slammin’ Sammy could become Swingin’-and-Missin’ Sammy.
SB: 138, Hugh Nicol, 1887
Yeah, like anyone these days will even steal 100 bases.
ERA: 0.86, Tim Keefe, 1880
There have been a few serious challenges over the years to this record, but it has always held up. While it seems a freakish record that probably won’t be bested, I think it can be broken one of these days. A pitcher would need a good park, a great defense and a barrelful of luck, but it can happen – just not this season.
WINS: 59, Charley Radbourn, 1884
Next category, please.
GAMES PITCHED: 106, Mike Marshall, 1974
With the ways teams are so careful with their pitchers nowadays, it’s likely that no one will reach triple-digit games for quite some time. But someday – and it could happen this year – a team will be forced to over-rely on an aging bullpen arm and that record will be broken. When it does happen, it’ll be a somewhat anonymous player, someone like Tim Worrell.
SAVES: Bobby Thigpen 57, 1990
Thigpen proved, if nothing else, that saves are first and foremost a matter of chance. Thigpen was not an overpowering pitcher like Dennis Eckersley or Eric Gagne, but he got an inordinate number of save opportunities. For someone like 55-save righty Gagne, who pitches for a low-scoring team behind a good pitching staff, that’s a good sign. There’s no reason to think Gagne can’t break that record this year.
INNINGS PITCHED: 680, Will White, 1879
See comment under wins.
STRIKEOUTS: 513, Matt Kilroy, 1886
See comment under wins and innings pitched.
SHUTOUTS: 16, Pete Alexander, 1916
This is getting repetitive.
HR ALLOWED: 50, Bert Blyleven, 1986
If the Tigers played in a hitters’ park, Mike Maroth (the first pitcher since Brian Kingman in 1980 to lose 20 games) could have laid waste to this record as well: He allowed 34 home runs in 2003. He probably won’t repeat that 30-homer season, but somewhere is a pitcher who will give up a ton of homers but still be asked to take the mound every five days. That someone will probably come from the Rockies staff.
BB: 289, Amos Rusie, 1890
It would take a manager with a lot of patience and no options for someone to break this record. The only pitcher in the 20th century to come close was Bob Feller, who still fell 80-some walks short. It’s not likely to be broken ever.
LOSSES: 48, John Coleman, 1883
With all the hubbub over Maroth’s disastrous 2003, he didn’t even come close to the losses record. And no one ever will.
WILD PITCHES: 63, Bill Stemmeyer, 1886
Unless Charlie “Wild Thing” Sheen gives baseball another shot, this is yet another pitching record that won’t ever fall.
* All records are those as recorded on Baseballreference.com
e-mail questions or comments to mtoeset@baseballguru.com
