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03/25/2004 Archived Entry: "MLB news: Milestones preview"
MLB news: 2004 milestones preview
By Michael Toeset
With the 2004 MLB season almost upon us, it’s a good time to look at a handful of position players chasing milestones this year. The players to be examined are, for the most part, looking to secure their place in history by either making the top 20 all-time or inching to the top of their respective career record lists. There’s certainly a common theme here – longevity – and you won’t find any references to the Albert Pujolses or Miguel Cabreras. It’s no secret that the key to these records is a long, consistent career, and players who may have been underappreciated in their time – Fred McGriff comes to mind – are some of those gunning for pre-eminence (or notoriety, in one case).
So without further ado, here are a few milestones to keep an eye on this season:
HOME RUNS – As we all know, Barry Bonds is chasing immortality and will pass Willie Mays on the homer list this season (see previous article on this Web site), but a few overshadowed others also are making their way up the list. Sammy Sosa, No. 10 with 539 home runs, should be at No. 7 by year’s end, passing Mike Schmidt, Reggie Jackson and Harmon Killebrew. If Sosa returns to his 50-homer days, he’ll also pass Mark McGwire and Frank Robinson.
Rafael Palmeiro is the third active player in the top 20, sitting at No. 13 with 528 home runs. He’s been straining to knock the ball out of the park in recent years, so you can be sure he’s focused on moving up the list. He should be able to pass Jimmie Foxx and Mickey Mantle early on in the season, and he’ll be right on Sosa’s heels trying to move past McGwire.
Two others have a reasonable shot at cracking the top 20; “reasonable” because of their respective situations. Fred McGriff, who only had 297 at-bats last year and most likely won’t start this season, is currently No. 21 with 491 home runs. He wants to join the elite 500-homer club and should be able to even as a bench player. In the process he’ll pass Lou Gehrig, and it’s possible that he’ll move to No. 18 on the list (he needs 20 homers to do so). Also with a “reasonable” chance is the oft-injured Ken Griffey, who’s No. 22 on the list with 481 homers. Hope springs eternal every spring training that Griffey will be the player of old and slug 50 home runs, and if this is that season, he’ll jump to No. 14.
RUNS – Bonds is currently ninth on the list with 1,941 runs scored. If he scores as many as last season – 111 – he’ll move up to seventh on the list, passing Stan Musial and Cap Anson. It’s not inconceivable that Bonds can pass Mays this year, who is sixth with 2,062. Even if Bonds does cross home plate enough to surpass Mays, he won’t be moving any higher than sixth place. Out of reach – for this season, at least – are Pete Rose, Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Ty Cobb and Rickey Henderson. Bonds needs only 354 runs to move to No. 1 on the list, but if he gets close, look for a 50-something-year-old Henderson to make yet another comeback.
DOUBLES – Palmeiro, who is tied with Tony Gwynn on the doubles list at No. 18, should easily move to No. 16 by year’s end, and if he has a season more like 2002 than 2003 (34 two years ago vs. 21 last year), he could tie Wade Boggs at No. 15.
Also looking to move up the doubles list are Bonds, No. 25, and Craig Biggio, No. 33. Going on last season’s numbers, both of them can pass Gwynn this season and break into the top 20. Biggio, who hit 44 doubles last year, has a shot at passing Bonds, who these days hits about twice as many home runs as doubles; in 2003 he hit 45 homers and 22 doubles.
TRIPLES – Not surprisingly, not a single active player is in the top 100 on the career triples list. The most recent players to make the list were Willie Wilson, George Brett, Brett Butler and Robin Yount, all of whom had their heydays in the 1980s. There is, however, one player who has a chance to crack the top 100 – Steve Finley. If he can hit as many three-baggers as he did last year – 10 – he’ll be tied for 99th place with three players. That’s not exactly something worth bragging about, but in this era of triple-killing ballparks, it’s actually quite an accomplishment.
RBI – Bonds and Palmeiro also are making their way up the RBI list. Bonds is No. 16 at the moment, and a 100-RBI season would move him to No. 12 all-time, passing Robinson, Al Simmons, Dave Winfield and Ted Williams. Another monster year from Bonds – 120 RBI – would move him all the way up to No. 10, also passing Carl Yastrzemski and Mel Ott.
Palmeiro is presently No. 20 on the list, but he’s only 55 RBI behind Bonds and is looking to accomplish pretty much the same thing as the Giant. Just ahead of Palmeiro are Cal Ripken, Jackson and Honus Wagner.
WALKS – In the not-so-glamorous category of bases on balls, something special is happening. No. 2 Bonds (yeah, him again) needs only 121 walks to make him the most-walked player in the history of baseball. He should easily pass Henderson (assuming Rickey doesn’t play this season), as he’s averaged an ungodly 174 walks the past three seasons.
Also moving up the list is Frank Thomas, who if he has a 100-walk season as he did in 2003, will jump from No. 24 to No. 17, and in the process knock Mays down a notch in yet another category. Thomas will likely pass Dwight Evans and Aaron early on this year.
STRIKEOUTS – Swinging for a notorious record is Sosa, who is No. 3 on the all-time whiffs list. Assuming Slammin’ Sammy hasn’t learned how to cut down on the strikeouts, he’ll pass Andres Galarraga sometime in the first month of the season. Galarraga, who at age 41 recorded 272 at-bats and 61 strikeouts in 2003, could fend off Sosa, but it looks like he may be forced to retire because of health concerns. Sosa has no chance to get to No. 1 this year, but Jackson’s record 2,597 strikeouts are within reach; the 35-year-old Sosa is only 620 behind.
STEALS – Kenny Lofton has an outside shot to crack the top 20 base-stealers list this season. Assuming the 36-year-old’s legs hold up, he should easily move from No. 28 to No. 23 this season, and if he steals 30 bases like he did last year, he’ll be tied for No. 22. To make it to the top 20, Lofton needs 42 steals – which would tie him with Ozzie Smith. It’s doubtful that Lofton will catch the Wizard this year, but it’s not out of the question.
HIT BY PITCH – Perhaps the most interesting record hunt to keep an eye on this season is the hit-by-pitch mark. Biggio, No. 5 all-time with 241 HBP, managed to get plunked 27 times last year, and if he does that in 2004, he’ll move up to No. 3, passing Don Baylor and the little-known Ron Hunt. Who are No. 1 and No. 2 on this obscure list? Tommy Tucker, who was hit 272 times, and Hughie Jennings, who took one for the team a record 287 times.
WINS – In many of the career pitching categories, not many modern-day players are even close to cracking the top 20. But there are a few exceptions, and two of those are Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux, who both are moving up the wins list. Clemens, who retired and then quickly unretired in the offseason, is No. 17 on the list. If he can win 15 games this season, he’ll move up to No. 12, passing fellow Texan Nolan Ryan. If Clemens somehow manages to win 20 games, he’ll move up to No. 9. Although it’s a well-known fact to stat-heads that Clemens has a zero percent chance of making No. 1, it’s worth pointing out that he needs an impossible 201 wins to tie Cy Young.
Maddux is currently No. 23 on the list, and he needs only 11 wins to join the exclusive 300-win club. And he only needs 12 wins to move to No. 20, bumping Lefty Grove and Early Wynn off of the list.
GAMES STARTED – It stands to reason that with a lot of wins comes a lot of starts, so not surprisingly, Clemens and Maddux also are near the top of this list. Clemens is No. 17 with 606 games started, and with another 20 starts will move to No. 13. There’s no chance he’ll move higher than that this season, but he’s already in rare company: The 600-start club has fewer members than the 500-home run club. Which brings us to Maddux, who should be able to become the club’s 18th member. At the moment, he’s at No. 21 with 571 starts. Barring injury, he’ll make it this season, and if his career lasts three more years, he’ll move ahead of Clemens (assuming this is his real swan song).
GAMES – John Franco, No. 6 on the games pitched list, has a good shot to move to No. 2 this season, passing Kent Tekulve, Hoyt Wilhelm, Dennis Eckersley and the recently retired Dan Plesac. He needs only to pitch in 36 games to make it, and if he still has the ability to get out lefties, he should do it. He won’t be able to catch ageless wonder Jesse Orosco – who also retired this offseason – this year, and it’s doubtful that he can ever catch him: the 43-year-old Franco needs 216 games to do so.
Also in the top 20 are Mike Jackson, No. 10, and Mike Stanton, No. 16. Neither of these pitchers look like they’re be much of a factor in 2004, but they could inch their way up the list; Jackson needs 28 games to move up a spot, and 22 games would move Stanton to No. 13. If these two are healthy and effective, they both can make big leaps up the list.
SAVES – There’s a plethora of active pitchers in the top 30, which isn’t all that surprising considering saves didn’t become a big-time stat until relatively recently, but at the top of the list are Franco at No. 2, Trevor Hoffman at No. 5, Roberto Hernandez at No. 9 and Robb Nen at No. 11. Franco won’t get many saves this year, if any, so No. 1 Lee Smith has nothing to fret about this season. Hernandez also probably won’t be moving up the list, even though he needs only 10 saves to catch John Wetteland.
A healthy Hoffman has an outside shot to dethrone Smith. He’s still only 36 and needs 127 saves – about three season’s worth – to pass Smith. This season, however, Hoffman should be able to pass Jeff Reardon, and an all-star year would move him ahead of Eckersley (he’s 38 saves behind Eck).
If Nen stays healthy (there seems to be a theme here) and records 30 saves, he’ll move up to No. 7, bumping Rollie Fingers down a notch.
There’s three others already in the top 20 – Rod Beck, Troy Percival and Mariano Rivera – and Percival and Rivera, who have the same amount of career saves, should have no problem leap-frogging to No. 12 on the list.
STRIKEOUTS – By unretiring, Clemens also give himself another shot at passing Steve Carlton on the career strikeouts list, and in all likelihood he will conclude his career at No. 2, behind Ryan. Clemens needs only 38 strikeouts to pass Carlton, and he should be able to collect that many in the first month of the season. He has no chance to catch Ryan, however: Clemens is still a whopping 1,615 strikeouts behind him.
On Clemens’ heels is No. 4 Randy Johnson, who’s 228 Ks behind Clemens. Johnson could move up one spot this year, also by passing Carlton, and he’ll be gunning to catch Clemens.
Others to watch are Maddux, No. 17, and Curt Schilling, No. 24. Seasons similar to 2003 would boost Maddux to No. 13 and Schilling to No. 18.
SHUTOUTS – Clemens has only tossed two shutouts in the past four years, so it’s doubtful he’ll move up this list, but if he pulls a Ryan – who somehow posted two shutouts at age 44 – he can inch up the list from 26th place. He only needs four shutouts to move into the top 20, tied with Rube Waddell and Vic Willis. Yet another Clemens stat for the Hall of Fame committee to ponder is that the closest current pitcher on the shutouts list is Johnson at No. 70.
HIT BATSMEN – Johnson, Clemens and Kevin Brown are already in the top 20 in this category. The former two aren’t likely to change their ranking this season unless they have a wild streak or a mean streak, so Johnson will remain at No. 12 and Clemens at No. 13. Brown, however, will move up. He’s No. 19 at the moment, and if he plunks five batters as he did in 2003, he’ll end the year at No. 15.
e-mail comments or questions to mtoeset@baseballguru.com
