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10/07/2003 Archived Entry: "MLB News: Championship Series Preview"
MLB News by Eric Gartman
Although four teams advanced to the Championship Series, the big news is the wins by the Cubs and Red Sox. The Cubs were clear underdogs to the Braves, who boasted the best offense in the National League. The Cubs won with two players, and two players alone: Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. Could this be Arizona 2001 again, with Schilling and Johnson being replaced by the two youngsters? Well, history shows its not impossible. And this time around, Prior will get to pitch twice instead of Wood. The Cubs have other quality starters in Zambrano and Clement as well. Mid-season deals for Kenny Lofton, Aramis Ramirez, Randall Simon and Eric Karros have strengthened their weak offense, but they still lack power. Their opponents, the Florida Marlins suprised a lot of people by beating the Giants. I warned in my last column not to underestimate the Marlins. They are a solid team, with good starting pitching and a balanced, if not overwhelming lineup. The Giants made several defensive miscues which proved very costly, and the Marlins took advantage. I would give the Marlins the edge, but if Prior and Wood pitch like they did in the NLDS, look out! In the American League, the Yanks rolled to an easy win over the Twins, overcoming a horrific start in Game 1. Their opponents, the Red Sox, narrowly beat the A's in a thrilling series. All indications point to the Yanks breaking the Red Sox faithful hearts again, however. The Yankees have a great starting rotation that the Sox can't come anywhere near to matching. Making matters worse, their two top starters, Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe, were used heavily in the Division series, and may be tired for the ALCS. The Sox still have potent bats, and we all saw what a good lineup can do to the Yankees in last years series against the Angels. But the A's also showed that the Sox mighty bats can be silenced. It will take monumental effort for the Sox to win.
But then again, there is a prominent school of thought which sees the short postseason series as a crapshoot in which anyone can win. Billy Beane, in "Moneyball" makes it clear that he doesn't think the postseason is a test of merit. And there is good evidence to support this contention. First, in the regular season teams use a five-man rotation, which gets changed to three in the postseason, negating 40 percent of a teams' starters. Second, it seems strange to try to boil down a 162-game season into a short 5 or 7 game series. And history shows some very mediocre teams have won it all. In recent years we have seen the '85 Royals, '87 Twins, and '88 Dodgers win the World Series, none of whom boasted good regular season records. I acknowledge that luck is a very large compenent in the baseball playoffs, much greater than in football, for example. But it may be a bit much to say that it is 100 percent random. Great teams like the 1927 Yankees, 1938-89 Yankees, 1970 Orioles, Big Red Machine of 1975-76, 1998-99 Yankees have won in the regular and postseasons. Other great teams like the 1954 Indians and 2001 Mariners have come up short. So postseason prognosticating is a risky business. But there is at least some sense to be made from it.
