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09/18/2003 Archived Entry: "MLB News: NL Cy Young Award Candidates"
MLB News by Eric Gartman
Yesterday we looked at AL Cy Young hopefuls, remembering that ERA is more important than won-lost record, and starters are more important than relievers. Let us turn to the NL today. There are three starters who sport nearly identical lines: Kevin Brown has rebounded spectacularly from his injuries to post a 14-8 record with a microscopic 2.35 ERA in 199 innings. Youthful Cub starter Mark Prior is 16-6 with a 2.47 era in 197 innings, and Jason Schmidt is 15-5 with a 2.37 ERA in 197 innings. All are excellent choices for the Cy Young Award. Yet the debate in the media is not which of these three candidiates is the best choice. In fact, the starter most often mentioned has an ERA of 4.07. Altanta's Russ Ortiz is being touted as the best starter this year due to his 19 wins, but that is mostly due to Atlanta's terrific offense. If Brown were playing for the Braves instead of the weak-hitting Dodgers, he would have 20-24 wins already. But the favorite choice of many isn't even a starter. Its ace Dodgers closer Eric Gagne. No doubt Gagne has been great as a closer this year with 51 saves in 51 chances and a measly 1.30 era. But Gagne has also only pitched 76 innings. Surely if Brown, Prior, or Schmidt threw that few innings they would also have extremely low ERA's. Gagne drew some support in last years' Cy Young debate with similiar numbers as this year. But the voters chose starter Randy Johnson. Their pick was validated after the season when Bill James Win Share totals came out: 29 for the Unit, 19 for Gagne. Two other starters also had more than Gagne, Curt Schilling with 24, and Roy Oswalt with 20. Greg Maddux and Kevin Millwood also had 19, but neither received much Cy Young support. It will be the same this year as all three starters will finish with more win shares than Gagne. And which of those three great starters deserve the award? Its still too close to call. We shall have to wait until the season is over.
Such miscalulcation of a pitcher's worth are not limited to the Cy Young voting. In the NL Rookie of the Year race, two young pitchers are having outstanding seasons. Florida sensation Dontrelle Willis is 13-6, aiding Florida in the Wild Card run while drawing fans to Pro Player stadium with his funky delivery and exuberant personality. But Willis is not the best rookie pitcher this year. Arizona's Brandon Webb has a 2.55 ERA to Willis 3.27, while throwing 30 more innings. But poor run support has left him only 9-7 on the year. Since his record is worse and he it not as exciting, Webb will most likely lose to Willis. The only factor in Willis favor is that he is three years younger than Webb, and thus has more room for growth.
Replies: 2 comments
The best way to think about this is to reverse the roles. Imagine if Ortiz were pitching elsewhere, for example in LA. Hideo Nomo, despite a stellar 3.09 ERA, is only 16-13 with the Dodgers. Ortiz, with an ERA over 4.00, would most likely have a losing record with LA. Therefore, it stands to reason that wins are a function of more than just a pitcher's performance, namely how will his offense backs him. With the best offense in the NL, all Ortiz had to do was be mediocre to win, and he was a very ordinary pitcher in 2003.
Posted by Eric Gartman @ 09/29/2003 12:37 AM EST
Russ Ortiz of the Atlanta Braves is the only NL pitcher with 20 wins. In fact, no one else is even close, with Mark Pryor of the Cubs at 17.
I completely disagree with the notion that ERA is more important than wins. The name of the game is to win, and Ortiz has given his team the opportunity to win more often than anyone else. Infact, many of Pryor, Schmidt or Brown's no-decisions have resulted from them giving away a lead late in a close game. This is something Ortiz rarely does, as he excels in pressure situations.
Let's also not forget that he is a much better hitter than any other candidate and this makes him more valuable to his team.
In the end, don't get too cute and try to over analyze things. The most valuable (and therefore CY Young winner) pitcher in the NL in 2003 is Russ Ortiz.
Posted by G Dawg @ 09/23/2003 06:19 PM EST
